📅 28 June 2026 | EarnFree.in | India Economy & Markets
Brent crude hit $72.68 per barrel on June 27 — its lowest level since February 27, the day before the Iran-Israel conflict escalated and disrupted Strait of Hormuz traffic. In a single week, Brent fell over 10% — its steepest weekly drop since late 2024. Saudi Aramco has resumed loading at the Ras Tanura terminal. US Energy Secretary Wright confirmed 20 million+ barrels passed through Hormuz in 24 hours. For India — which imports 85% of its crude oil — this is transformational news.
🛢️ Crude Oil Collapse — The Numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Brent crude (June 27) | $72.68/bbl — pre-war low |
| WTI crude (June 27) | $69.58/bbl — below $70 |
| Weekly Brent decline | -10.2% (biggest drop in months) |
| Peak war level (April 2026) | ~$90–$95/bbl |
| Goldman Sachs Q4 forecast | $80/bbl (cut from $88) |
| Saudi Aramco | Loading at Ras Tanura — first since March |
| Hormuz daily barrels (June 27) | 20 million+ (US Energy Sec confirmed) |
| India crude import bill saving | ~₹50,000 crore/year per $5 Brent fall |
🇮🇳 India Impact — 5 Direct Benefits
- ⛽ Petrol price cut likely in Q3 2026: Current retail petrol ₹94.72/litre. At Brent $72, OMCs (IOC, BPCL, HPCL) are running healthy margins. A ₹3–5/litre cut before state elections is politically likely. Every ₹1/litre cut saves consumers ₹12,000 crore annually.
- 📉 Inflation relief: Crude is the mother of all inflation — it feeds into transport, manufacturing, food logistics. Brent at $72 vs $92 peak means India’s WPI and CPI readings will cool in July-August data.
- 🏦 RBI rate cut window opens: RBI Governor Malhotra has been cautious citing crude risk. With Brent at $72, the inflation argument for holding rates weakens. A 25bps cut at the August MPC meeting is now possible.
- ₹ Rupee strengthens: Lower crude = lower import bill = less dollar demand = INR support. USD/INR could strengthen toward ₹83.50 if crude holds below $75.
- ✈️ Aviation and auto rally: IndiGo already gained 4.6% on Thursday. M&M +4.2%, Maruti +3.8%. These sectors are direct beneficiaries of sustained crude decline.
⚠️ The Risk: Iran Ceasefire Fragility
The 60-day US-Iran MoU is intact but fragile. Iran’s IRGC is actively attempting to derail the Israel-Lebanon framework announced by Secretary Rubio. Any resumption of Hormuz hostilities would spike Brent back toward $85–$90 rapidly. Traders should watch Hormuz shipping data daily as the primary risk indicator.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. Commodity prices are highly volatile. Nothing here constitutes investment advice.
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