π 28 June 2026 | EarnFree.in | India Market Outlook
Indian markets were closed Friday (June 26) for Muharram. They reopen Monday June 29 with Gift Nifty signalling a +0.14% gap-up open. The macro backdrop has improved dramatically: Brent crude hit a pre-war low of $72.68 (down 10% in a week), the RBI injected βΉ1,41,171 crore in liquidity, and India-US trade deal optimism is building. Here is the complete week-ahead playbook.
π Nifty β Technical Setup Entering June 29
| Level / Indicator | Value | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Sensex (Thu Jun 25 close) | 77,100 | Week gain: +0.4% β |
| Nifty 50 (Thu close) | 24,013 | Week gain: +1.65% β |
| Gift Nifty (Sunday signal) | 24,090 | +0.14% gap-up Monday likely |
| Bank Nifty (close) | 57,685 | Week gain: +1.53% β |
| Weekly RSI (Nifty) | 47.64 | Improving, below 50 β not yet bullish |
| 100-week EMA | Nifty above β | Medium-term support intact |
| Immediate resistance | 24,200 / 24,400 | Clear these for further upside |
| Support zone | 23,817 / 23,600 | Buy zone on dips |
| India VIX | 13.05 | Calm β low fear environment |
π Five Catalysts to Watch β Week of June 29
- π’οΈ Crude oil stability: Brent at $72.68 pre-war low. Every $5 fall in Brent saves India ~βΉ50,000 crore in import bill annually. If Brent holds below $75, expect sustained buying in aviation, auto, paints, and OMCs. IndiGo already surged 4.6%.
- π€ India-US trade deal: Rising expectations of an interim deal are making markets cautious but optimistic. Tariff reduction from 50% to 18% on Indian pharma and textiles already announced. A formal deal would be a 500+ point Sensex rally trigger.
- π¦ RBI liquidity: RBIβs βΉ1.41L crore VRR injection at 5.26% β banking sector tailwind. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI all positioned to benefit.
- π US data (July 1): ADP jobs + ISM Manufacturing. Weak ADP = less Fed hike risk = global risk-on = FII buying India.
- π§οΈ Monsoon watch: IMD tracking below-normal rainfall. A weak monsoon raises food CPI risk and could delay RBI rate cuts. Watch weekly rainfall data closely.
π― Sector Picks β Week of June 29
- π’ Aviation: IndiGo (INDIGO) β crude β = margins β. Momentum strong after 4.6% weekly gain.
- π’ Private Banks: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank β RBI liquidity + rate cut expectations.
- π’ Auto: M&M (+4.2%), Maruti (+3.8%) leading. Crude β = consumer spending boost.
- π’ Pharma: Cipla, Dr Reddyβs β Citi and Nomura positive outlook, US trade deal tailwind.
- π΄ Avoid: IT (TechM -1.49%, Infosys -1.40%), Metals (Vedanta -10.6%, NALCO -9.7%) β global headwinds.
β οΈ Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not SEBI-registered investment advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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