๐ 28 June 2026 | EarnFree.in | India Market Outlook
Indian markets were closed Friday (June 26) for Muharram. They reopen Monday June 29 with Gift Nifty signalling a +0.14% gap-up open. The macro backdrop has improved dramatically: Brent crude hit a pre-war low of $72.68 (down 10% in a week), the RBI injected โน1,41,171 crore in liquidity, and India-US trade deal optimism is building. Here is the complete week-ahead playbook.
๐ Nifty โ Technical Setup Entering June 29
| Level / Indicator | Value | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Sensex (Thu Jun 25 close) | 77,100 | Week gain: +0.4% โ |
| Nifty 50 (Thu close) | 24,013 | Week gain: +1.65% โ |
| Gift Nifty (Sunday signal) | 24,090 | +0.14% gap-up Monday likely |
| Bank Nifty (close) | 57,685 | Week gain: +1.53% โ |
| Weekly RSI (Nifty) | 47.64 | Improving, below 50 โ not yet bullish |
| 100-week EMA | Nifty above โ | Medium-term support intact |
| Immediate resistance | 24,200 / 24,400 | Clear these for further upside |
| Support zone | 23,817 / 23,600 | Buy zone on dips |
| India VIX | 13.05 | Calm โ low fear environment |
๐ Five Catalysts to Watch โ Week of June 29
- ๐ข๏ธ Crude oil stability: Brent at $72.68 pre-war low. Every $5 fall in Brent saves India ~โน50,000 crore in import bill annually. If Brent holds below $75, expect sustained buying in aviation, auto, paints, and OMCs. IndiGo already surged 4.6%.
- ๐ค India-US trade deal: Rising expectations of an interim deal are making markets cautious but optimistic. Tariff reduction from 50% to 18% on Indian pharma and textiles already announced. A formal deal would be a 500+ point Sensex rally trigger.
- ๐ฆ RBI liquidity: RBIโs โน1.41L crore VRR injection at 5.26% โ banking sector tailwind. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI all positioned to benefit.
- ๐ US data (July 1): ADP jobs + ISM Manufacturing. Weak ADP = less Fed hike risk = global risk-on = FII buying India.
- ๐ง๏ธ Monsoon watch: IMD tracking below-normal rainfall. A weak monsoon raises food CPI risk and could delay RBI rate cuts. Watch weekly rainfall data closely.
๐ฏ Sector Picks โ Week of June 29
- ๐ข Aviation: IndiGo (INDIGO) โ crude โ = margins โ. Momentum strong after 4.6% weekly gain.
- ๐ข Private Banks: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank โ RBI liquidity + rate cut expectations.
- ๐ข Auto: M&M (+4.2%), Maruti (+3.8%) leading. Crude โ = consumer spending boost.
- ๐ข Pharma: Cipla, Dr Reddyโs โ Citi and Nomura positive outlook, US trade deal tailwind.
- ๐ด Avoid: IT (TechM -1.49%, Infosys -1.40%), Metals (Vedanta -10.6%, NALCO -9.7%) โ global headwinds.
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not SEBI-registered investment advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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