๐ 2 July 2026 | EarnFree.in | Investing: Technical Outlook
Despite Nifty and Sensex closing H1 2026 down 8.5% and 10% respectively, technical analysts see a path to new highs by year-end. SBI Securities’ Sudeep Shah sees Sensex targeting 86,000 in the base case, with an optimistic scenario of 88,000-89,000 if the 80,400 resistance breaks decisively. Nifty’s key resistance sits at 24,600 โ a breakout could extend the rally toward the January 2026 all-time high of 26,373.
๐ Key Technical Levels โ H2 2026
| Index | Support | Resistance | Target (Base Case) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,000 (strong), 22,000-21,800 (major) | 24,600 | 26,350 (breakout scenario) |
| Sensex | 74,533 (immediate), 72,767 (major, 200-week EMA) | 78,865 (50-week EMA) | 86,000 (base), 88,000-89,000 (optimistic) |
๐ The Historical Pattern Analysts Are Watching
This is only the third time since COVID that Nifty ended H1 in the red โ previously in 2022 and 2020. Both prior instances saw strong H2 rebounds โ Nifty gained 14.7% in H2 2022 and a massive 35.7% in H2 2020, with new all-time highs registered both times. Since the April 2 low of 22,182, Nifty has already recovered ~10%, entering a sideways consolidation phase within a 1,600-point range.
๐ฏ What Would Trigger the Breakout?
- ๐ข๏ธ Crude sustaining below $75 (already happening โ easing US-Iran tensions)
- ๐ฆ Fed rate cut confirmation at July 29 FOMC (jobs data supports this now)
- ๐ฐ Sustained FII inflows returning to India after H1 outflows
- ๐ A decisive close above 24,600 for Nifty / 80,400 for Sensex
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: Technical views belong to respective brokerages. Not SEBI-registered investment advice.
