Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts and issued a stark warning: Brent crude could soar above $120 a barrel in 2027 if Gulf output stays suppressed by ongoing conflict.
The bank lifted its Brent and WTI forecasts by $5 to $85 and $80 a barrel respectively for December 2026, and to $80 and $75 for 2027. But the real story is the risk scenario: if crude output in the Gulf remains roughly 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, Goldman says Brent could blow past $120 — well above its current base case.
“We view more intense shipping attacks in Hormuz and the Red Sea as the most likely driver of this lower-output, higher-price scenario,” said Daan Struyven, Goldman’s head of oil research, in a note. The bank expects Mideast shipping disruptions to persist into 2027, with production only gradually recovering in the back half of the year.
For context, other banks are more measured — CBA still sees Brent trading between $70 and $100 through the second half of 2026, and says prices could fall back toward the bottom of that range if Hormuz flows recover even partially. The spread between these forecasts underscores just how much hinges on whether the current conflict escalates further or finds an off-ramp.
Sourced from Goldman Sachs research notes reported via CNBC and cross-checked against independent commodity data providers. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
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