AUUSD: Navigating the Week Ahead
Our analysis focuses on key support and resistance levels to anticipate potential price movements in Gold.
XAUUSD Key Support
- 3320–3330: Strong buyer demand zone. Watch for potential bounces in this area.
- 3282–3295: The base of the July low, representing a significant support level.
- 3309–3312: Minor demand area, which could offer short-term support.
XAUUSD Key Resistance
- 3385–3405: A major rejection zone where selling pressure is expected.
- 3440–3451: The monthly high, acting as a significant resistance wall.
- 3360–3367: Intraday supply zone where short-term selling opportunities might arise.
XAUUSD Magnet Zones
- 3350–3360: The point of control area, indicating a region of high trading activity and potential equilibrium.
- 3330: A liquidity pull zone, suggesting price may gravitate towards this level to gather orders.
DXY: Gauging Dollar Strength
The performance of the US Dollar Index will play a crucial role in XAUUSD’s movements. Here are the key levels to monitor for DXY:
DXY Key Support
- 97.32–97.20: Major demand zone where buyers are likely to step in.
- 96.77: Liquidity sweep zone, a level where stop losses might be triggered, potentially leading to sharp reversals.
DXY Key Resistance
- 97.87–98.21: Heavy supply zone indicating strong selling pressure.
- 98.60–98.96: Macro resistance level representing a significant barrier for further Dollar strength.
Bias for the Week
- Gold bias: Bullish to Neutral. The current structure of XAUUSD suggests a preference for upside as long as it holds above the 3330 level.
- DXY weakness below 97.30 would further strengthen the bullish case for Gold.
- A break above 3385 in XAUUSD could trigger momentum towards the 3400+ region.
- The bullish bias for Gold would flip to bearish if XAUUSD loses 3315 and DXY reclaims the 98+ level.
Fundamental Risk Events (July 29 – August 2)
Traders should be aware of the following high-impact economic releases that can induce significant volatility:
- Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence
- Wednesday: FOMC Rate Decision (Expect high volatility)
- Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
Important Considerations:
- Expect dollar-driven volatility particularly mid-to-late week due to the FOMC and NFP releases.
- It is advisable to maintain light trading positions ahead of these major news events to manage risk.
- Be vigilant for potential traps and fakeouts around the times of the FOMC announcement and NFP release.
Bias Guide for Trading Decisions:
- DXY above 98.00 = Gold Bearish
- DXY below 97.30 = Gold Bullish
- DXY 97.60–97.87 = Sideways Range, exercise patience and avoid aggressive positioning.
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