XAUUSD Intraday Playbook: Sell on Rise Strategy for 31 Dec 2025 (LON Close to NY Open)
Gold (XAUUSD) remains in distribution mode above key value areas, with USD strength via DXY capping upside rallies while selective defenses hold dips—setting up a classic inventory balancing session. Intraday bias favors **sell on rise** above 4335–4375, with tactical dip buys only on confirmed absorption below 4310.[1]
## Market State Overview
Gold shows no accumulation signs, as structure distributes above value amid steady DXY pressure around 98.20. Rallies face selling absorption (green delta but stalled price), while dips near 4280 get defended tactically. Expected session range: 4280–4375, with value cluster at 4310–4340.
Key Levels Breakdown
| Zone | Price Range | Role | Trigger/Action |
|——|————-|——|—————|
| Primary Sell | 4335–4375 | Supply/Resistance | Sell rallies with VWAP rejection; target 4310–4280 |
| Chop/Trap | 4320–4340 | Gamma Neutral | Avoid trades; expect stop hunts/fakeouts |
| Buy Defense (Scalp) | 4280–4310 | Dealer Support | Buy only on absorption + delta flip; target 4310–4335 |
| Flush/Acceleration | Below 4275 | Momentum Short | Trail shorts; gamma flip accelerates selling |
Volatility expands above 4355 (upside risk) or below 4275 (downside acceleration).[1]
## Step-by-Step Trade Ideas
### 1. Primary Short Setup (Sell on Rise – High Probability)
– **Entry Trigger**: Price rallies into 4335–4375 with green delta spike but stalls (no upside follow-through) + VWAP rejection.
– **Entry**: Short at 4350–4365 (market or limit).
– **Stop Loss**: Above 4375 (0.2–0.5% risk).
– **Targets**:
– TP1: 4340 (scale 40%; R:R 1:1).
– TP2: 4310 (scale 40%; R:R 1:2).
– TP3: 4280 (trail remainder).
– **Invalidation**: Delta divergence fails or breaks 4375 cleanly.
– **Expected Move**: 50–100 pips; ideal for LON/NY overlap.
### 2. Secondary Long Scalp (Dip Buy – Confirmation Only)
– **Entry Trigger**: Price dips to 4280–4310 on heavy volume absorption (no downside acceleration) + delta divergence (red delta but price holds).
– **Entry**: Long at 4290–4305.
– **Stop Loss**: Below 4280 (tight 0.3% risk).
– **Targets**:
– TP1: 4310 (scale 50%).
– TP2: 4335 (scale 50%; R:R 1:2).
– **Invalidation**: Breaks below 4275 (flush zone).
– **Risk Note**: Scalp only; no overnight holds.
### 3. No-Trade Rules
Avoid entries inside 4320–4340 chop zone without clear delta/VWAP alignment. Skip chasing green candles above 4355 or reds below 4275 without confirmation.
## Order Flow & Big Player Insights
Whales distribute above 4350; dealers defend 4310 support but flip short below 4275. Funds chase momentum flushes. Session flow: Asia range-bound, London distribution, NY decision (fade rallies or accelerate lower).
Risk 0.5–1% per trade max, prioritizing confluence of delta, VWAP, and structure for edge in this balancing session.
Sources
[1] Bitcoin price today, BTC to USD live price, marketcap and chart | CoinMarketCap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
