COMMODITY Market Updates 1 OCTOBER
Market Updates: October 1st, 2024
1. Gold and Commodities:
- COMEX Gold prices are holding declines, currently trading below $2,660 per ounce. This follows comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who downplayed the likelihood of aggressive interest rate cuts. While Powell confirmed that the central bank would lower rates “over time,” he maintained that the overall US economy remains strong, which tempers the prospects for significant rate reductions.
| Commodity | Price | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| COMEX Gold | Below $2,660/oz | Fed comments on rate cuts |
| WTI Crude Oil | Above $68/barrel | Geopolitical tensions & potential Libyan supply |
2. Crude Oil:
- WTI Crude Oil prices are steady above $68 per barrel as markets weigh the impact of Israel’s military operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon against the prospect of increased Libyan oil supply. The situation remains fluid, with geopolitical risks keeping oil prices supported for now.
3. Base Metals:
- LME Base Metals posted modest gains today after a slight pullback yesterday. China’s week-long holiday is contributing to reduced demand, while an extended recovery in the US dollar is capping further price upside.
| Base Metal | Price Trend | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Copper | Modest Gains | China holiday, USD strength |
| Aluminum | Modest Gains | Supply concerns |
- Iván Arriagada, CEO of Antofagasta, one of the largest copper producers in Chile, highlighted a “disconnect” between government policies that are delaying mining permits and the rapidly growing demand for copper. As countries strive to meet energy transition goals, copper demand is rising, yet the supply chain remains constrained.
4. Economic Events to Watch:
- Today, markets will focus on:
- EU Core CPI (Consumer Price Index): Inflation trends in the Eurozone will be scrutinized as the European Central Bank faces ongoing economic challenges.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI: This is a key indicator of the US manufacturing sector’s health.
- Speeches by Fed Officials: More clarity is expected on the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory, following Powell’s comments.
| Event | Time (ET) | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| EU Core CPI | 5:00 AM | High |
| US ISM Manufacturing PMI | 10:00 AM | High |
| Fed Official Speeches | Throughout Day | Medium to High |
In summary, the markets today are navigating central bank signals, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing supply concerns across commodities. Investors will be particularly focused on key economic data releases to gauge the next steps for monetary policy and global growth tren
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